LONDON (Reuters) – Libyan rebel forces ill-equipped to fight their way into a city the size of Tripoli may look to locally brokered deals or a burgeoning popular uprising to break the will of Muammar Gaddafi’s forces.
Libya’s civil war so far has involved some serious urban fighting in towns such as Misrata, but most battles have been relatively small skirmishes.
If Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi retains the loyalty of large numbers of security forces in the capital, the ragtag opposition forces could struggle and there would be little NATO air strikes could do without risking civilians.
“I’m assuming the Tripoli fighting could be the fiercest,” said Hayat Alvi, lecturer in Middle East politics at the United States Naval War College. “The wild card will be the Tripoli public. True loyalties will have to finally manifest themselves. I’m predicting in the rebels’ favor, but we don’t know what Gaddafi and his sons have up their sleeves.”
Gauging the loyalty of Tripoli’s population is far from easy. Gaddafi loyalists have put on many marches and demonstrations of loyalty in recent months, but hundreds if not thousands of his opponents also took to the streets in the early stages of the uprising before they were cowed.
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