The aging of America may be good for
the U.S. labor market.
A growing number of older people and rising health-care
spending are driving demand for workers from nursing aides to
surgeons. While the economy lost 7.5 million positions during
the recession, health care expanded staff. Together with social
assistance, it will add more than 5.6 million employees to
become the largest job gainer by 2020, according to new
projections released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Manufacturing is forecast to lose 73,000 jobs by then.
Health care — including doctors, nurses and hospitals –
was the largest contributor to employment growth in the past two
years, with a 22 percent share that was almost twice as big as
manufacturing. The U.S. workforce could use the boost: Monthly
payroll gains are running below what’s required to reduce
significantly the 8.5 percent jobless rate. Unemployment was 5
percent in December 2007, when the recession began.
“The first baby boomer just turned 65 last year, so when
it comes to health-care jobs in America, we haven’t seen nothing
yet,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of
Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. These jobs “are going
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