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Rates Push 2017 Lows For 3rd Straight Day

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Mortgage rates set new 2017 lows for the third straight day today, although only in terms of “effective rates” (which take upfront costs into account).  “Note rates” (which simply refer to the rate applied to one’s loan balance) are unchanged from yesterday, with most lenders continuing to quote 4.0% for top tier conventional 30yr fixed scenarios.  There are still quite a few lenders quoting 4.125% and a very small minority already down to 3.875%.  

There were no new motivations for bond market movement (which dictates rates) today, but in general, rates have benefited this week from geopolitical risks and Trump’s comments on the strength of the US dollar yesterday.  Markets will close early today in observance of the Good Friday holiday and will be closed tomorrow.  Banks will also be closed, which means no potential mortgage rate movement until next Monday.

Loan Originator Perspective

Bonds have had a great rally over the last couple days, so you should be seeing nicely improved rate sheets.  Typically, not a fan at locking with a holiday weekend ahead, but I think it would be wise to lock in these gains today. –Victor Burek, Churchill Mortgage

Bond markets closed early today, and will be closed Good Friday as well.  We’ve had quite a ride this week, gaining about 50 bps on pricing, and rates are at their 2017 lows.  A lot can change in this world over a 3.5 day weekend, I wouldn’t blame anyone for locking here.  By the same logic, hard to fault floaters, given current geo-political drama and legislative stalemate.  Can’t go wrong either way, I guess. -Ted Rood, Senior Originator


Today’s Best-Execution Rates

  • 30YR FIXED – 4.0%
  • FHA/VA – 3.75%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED – 3.375%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS –  2.75 – 3.25% depending on the lender


Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • Some investors are increasingly worried/convinced that the decades-long trend toward lower rates has been permanently reversed, but such a conclusion would require YEARS to truly confirm
  • Rates are currently attempting to break below the post-election range.  This is the most promising position they’ve been in during 2017.
     
  • We’re shifting into a trend where the burden of proof will be on fiscal reforms and other policy developments to push rates higher.  Until and unless the 2017 ceiling breaks, we can at least say that the trend is now sideways. 
     
  • Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders.  The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable.  Rates appearing on this page are “effective rates” that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.

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