There are several news stories out today that reference LOWER rates this week. These all rely on stale survey data that failed to account for changes over the past 2 days. 

Mortgage rates actually continued higher today at the same quicker pace seen yesterday.  Due to the relatively narrow range during November, rates are now in line with their highest levels in more than a month whereas they were at 2-week lows just 2 days ago.  The average lender is now quoting conventional 30yr fixed rates of 4.0% on top tier scenarios, with a few outliers at 3.875% and 4.125%.  A few days ago, 3.875% was nearly as prevalent.

As we discussed yesterday, the potential tax bill has had a pretty consistent relationship with rates.  To whatever extent it looks passable, rates have generally moved higher.  Today was no exception as McCain, one of the few remaining GOP holdouts, said he’d now vote for the bill.  The Senate plans to vote on the bill late tonight or tomorrow.

Today’s Most Prevalent Rates

  • 30YR FIXED – 4.0%
  • FHA/VA – 3.75% 
  • 15 YEAR FIXED – 3.375%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS –  2.75 – 3.25% depending on the lender


Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • 2017 had proven to be a relatively good year for mortgage rates despite widespread expectations for a stronger push higher after the presidential election in late 2016. 
  • While rates remain low in absolute terms, they’ve moved higher in a more threatening way heading into the 4th quarter, relative to the stability and improvement seen earlier in 2017
  • The default stance for now is that this trend toward higher rates has the potential to continue.  It will take more than a few great days here and there for that outlook to change.
  • For weeks, this bullet point had warned about recent stability inviting a bigger dose of volatility.  That volatility is now here.  As such, locking is generally the better choice until the volatility is clearly dying down.
  • Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders.  The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable.  Rates appearing on this page are “effective rates” that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.

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