President Donald Trump displays the $1.5 trillion tax overhaul package he had signed on December 22, 2017, in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington [AP Photo]

A recession is coming!

Is it?

If so, when? And we should ask why.

A headline in Fortune said, “A Majority of Economists Think the Next Recession Will Come by the 2020 Election”.

Business Insider’s headline was “More than 70 percent of economists think a US recession will strike by the end of 2021”.

There is a huge political difference between the two.

Donald Trump‘s bid for re-election is dependent on his base plus a good economy. In our most simplistic mental model, if a recession comes before November, 2020, he loses.

If it waits at least until

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