President Donald Trump displays the $1.5 trillion tax overhaul package he had signed on December 22, 2017, in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington [AP Photo]
A recession is coming!
If so, when? And we should ask why.
A headline in Fortune said, “A Majority of Economists Think the Next Recession Will Come by the 2020 Election”.
Business Insider’s headline was “More than 70 percent of economists think a US recession will strike by the end of 2021”.
There is a huge political difference between the two.
Donald Trump‘s bid for re-election is dependent on his base plus a good economy. In our most simplistic mental model, if a recession comes before November, 2020, he loses.
If it waits at least until