The economic impacts of COVID-19 are already shaping up to be significant, yet uneven, across the country. Not only are workers and businesses affected, but so too is the fiscal capacity of governments that rely on a healthy economy for their revenue. As the crisis unfolds, the impact on cities’ bottom line will be driven not only by overall economic conditions but specifically the parts of the economy where revenue is generated: retail sales, income and wages, and real estate.

To understand when cities can anticipate the brunt of COVID-19’s impact on their general fund revenues, we examined the extent to which a city relies on general tax sources that respond quickly to economic swings. An important factor is whether the city’s underlying regional economy

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