Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, put it this way when asked about when baseball stadiums will be filled again: “I cannot see a return this year to what we consider normal.”

What isn’t getting as much attention is the possibility of a W-shaped recovery, the scary scenario when the economy starts looking better and then there’s a second downturn later this year or next. The “W” could be triggered by reopening the economy too quickly and seeing a second spike in deaths from covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. Businesses would have to shutter again, and people would be even more afraid to venture out until a vaccine is found.

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