Rates investors grappling with this crisis are strategizing for the recovery — but it may not be much easier to trade.
On the face of it, the playbook seems straightforward. Central banks globally are smothering volatility and driving yields lower with massive asset purchases and other programs — including the $2.3 trillion of support the Federal Reserve tossed into the mix Thursday.
Just like in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis, this creates a strong case for ditching government debt in favor of riskier assets. But timing such a move around the uneven spread of a pandemic, uncoordinated waves of global government spending, a flood of bond supply, and the risk of mounting corporate defaults — not to mention skittish market sentiment —