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If the novel COVID-19 pandemic is brought under control soon, the disease’s impact on the insurance industry as a whole may be pretty much a wash.

It not, the industry may be on the verge of an historic catastrophe.

A report by Willis Towers Watson projects that personal and commercial auto insurers in the United States and United Kingdom will see a $51 billion reduction in claims costs this year, while returning an estimated $16 billion to consumers through refunds. Refunds estimated so far are estimated at $10 billion and insurers will likely kick more back to customers if stay-at-home orders continue, the analysis says.

On the other hand, COVID-19 may add $16.7 billion to U.S. workers’ compensation losses and increase

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