Rather than drying up this summer the way it usually does, U.S. stock market trading volume should remain heavy — and that’s potentially bullish for stocks overall. At least is the novel argument some analysts are making.

Not so fast. To be sure, there is some statistical support for the notion that higher volume is more bullish than lower volume. Consider a study of summer stock-market weakness that appeared two decades ago in the American Economic Review. The study’s authors found that the summertime performance of a country’s stock market was “significantly related to both length and timing of vacations and also to the impact of vacations on trading activity in different countries.”

That is why the stock market in the summer of 2020

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