Officially, as of March 12, there were 393 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States.

However, because of snafus that caused delays in the distribution of—effective—testing kits nationally, and ineffective screening of international travelers, it’s believed that the numbers may have been much higher.

Now, an analysis published on August 21in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) has estimated these “unobserved” cases, and their findings paint a grim picture of the scope of the pandemic in this country at its early stages.

Using the Models of Infectious Disease Agent Spread (MIDAS) Network and data from Johns Hopkins University, which has been tracking the pandemic globally, along with information on deaths from across the country, they calculated the number of imported infections based on the

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