The U.S. stock market may or may not rise over the next four weeks. This earth-shattering prediction comes from my composite of stock-market seasonal patterns. Some of those seasonal tendencies suggest the U.S. market will rise through mid-April, while others point to a flat-to-lower market.
I normally wouldn’t bother to point this out. But I decided to do so because some on the internet are claiming that the U.S. stock market exhibits strong seasonal strength through the end of April.
To be sure, no doubt it’s possible to slice and dice the data to support that expectation. But I also have no doubt that it’s possible to slice and dice the seasonal data in another way and come up with the opposite expectation.