Each month, AAF’s Director of Fiscal Policy Gordon Gray predicts the results of the monthly employment survey. This month, Gray writes:

This guesstimator is assuming a 675,000-payroll gain and a decline in the U-3 to 6.0 percent, while workers will see a 4-cent gain in hourly earnings. These gains would make for a strong report, but it will take months to years of sustained, strong reports to reflect a fully recovered labor market.

See below for his full analysis.


In March, President Biden signed into law a roughly $1.9 trillion domestic spending plan that included robust income support for eligible Americans and, among other domestic spending, some additional commitments to hasten vaccination against the coronavirus. Amid that policy rollout, rates of vaccination are steadily rising.

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