Washington Watch: Republicans still favored in midterm elections, but their chances for taking back Senate are dropping

by | Jul 15, 2022 | Stock Market

Republicans are widely expected to score wins in this November’s midterm elections, thanks in large part to Americans’ frustrations with raging inflation. High prices for gasoline
and other essentials are helping to keep President Joe Biden’s approval ratings low — and giving a talking point for Republicans to use against Biden and his fellow Democrats.

But the GOP’s odds for taking back control of the Senate have fallen significantly this month, as shown in the chart below that’s based on data from betting market PredictIt. They’re down to around 63%, off from nearly 80% in mid-June. Republicans’ odds for regaining the House haven’t seen that type of drop and remain strong — at about 86%.

The decline in the GOP’s Senate odds has come as June polls in some key races favor Democrats. In Pennsylvania’s Senate race, for example, Democratic candidate John Fetterman had a 9-point advantage over GOP nominee Mehmet Oz, and in Georgia’s contest, incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock had a 10-point edge over Republican candidate Herschel Walker. From MarketWatch’s archives (May 2022): Dr. Oz, an ex-Bridgewater CEO and the ‘gentle giant’: How the Pennsylvania Senate race could shake up national politics And see: Supreme Court overturni …

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