Michael Sincere’s Long-Term Trader: Stocks are rallying now, but the 9 painful stages of this bear market are not even halfway done

by | Oct 18, 2022 | Stock Market

The official definition of a bear market is a 20% or greater decline from an index’s previous high. Accordingly, the three major U.S. stock-market benchmarks — the Nasdaq
COMP,
+0.90%,
the S&P 500
SPX,
+1.14%
and the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
+1.12%
— are currently all in a bear market. Based on my work with stock market strategist Mark D. Cook, a typical bear market goes through nine stages. Right now we are in Stage 4. Keep in mind that a bear market does not always follow these stages in the exact order. 

1. Failed rallies: Failed rallies represent the first clue that a bear market is here. Failed rallies often appear before the market “officially” becomes a bear market. If the rally doesn’t have legs and cannot go higher for the next few days or weeks, it confirms that the bear’s claws have sunk in. Along the way, many failed rallies will fool bulls into thinking the worst is over. Watch the rallies for bear-market clues. The rally so far this week is an example. Now in its second day, a failure of this rally would confirm that stocks are not yet out of a bear market. 2. Low-volume rallies: Another bear market clue is that stocks move higher on low volume. This is a clue the major financial institutions aren’t buying, although algos and hedge funds might be. It’s easy for the algos to push prices higher in a low-volume environment, one of the reasons for monster rallies that go nowhere the following day (i.e. a “one-day wonder”).  3. Terrible-looking charts: The easiest way to identify a bear market is by looking at a stock chart. It goes without saying that the charts look dreadful, both the daily and the weekly. While rallies help relieve some of the pressure, they typically don’t last long. 4. Strong selloffs: It’s been a couple of years since markets have experienced extremely strong selloffs, but that record was broken the week of September 26 when the S&P 500 hit a new low for 2022. These strong selloffs are typical of a bear market, followed by rallies that don’t last (a roller-coaster that so far has played out during October). 5. Mutual-fund redemptions: During this stage, after looking at their quarterly and monthly statements, horrified investors throw in the towel and sell their mutual funds (also, some inv …

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