Need to Know: Who’s going to be the next world’s economic power? Here’s what this famed economist is now saying — and one possible surprise

by | Oct 17, 2022 | Stock Market

Thursday’s dramatic spike doesn’t necessarily show that the stock market is about to bottom, but it does confirm that investors are so pessimistic that there isn’t a huge hurdle to overcome to turn things around. That’s one way to look at what is at stake from this week’s earnings from the likes of Netflix
NFLX,
-1.08%,
Tesla
TSLA,
-7.55%
and AT&T
T,
-0.86%.

But there are questions for now and questions for a later. A new research paper circulated by the National Bureau of Economic Research asks a fascinating question — which region will come to dominate the world economy? One of the authors is Laurence Kotlikoff, the Boston University professor and American Academy of Arts and Sciences fellow who in the 1970s designed the model that economists use to track economies over time. Drawing on United Nations demographic and International Monetary Fund fiscal data, they created what they call the Global Gaidar Model, drawing on the name of the Russian institute of one of the co-authors. They focus on five variables — population growth, population aging, productivity catchup, fiscal adjustment and automation. As of 2017, Western Europe and China each accounted for about 17% of world GDP, with the U.S. at 16%. By 2100, they expect a very different story, with China and India becoming the world’s top two economic hegemons, accounting for 27% and 16% of world GDP respectively, with the U.S. and Western Europe share at about 12% each. The real surprise …

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