The missing risks of climate change – Nature.com

by | Oct 26, 2022 | Climate Change

Here we distinguish between five categories of currently missing risks and suggest potential solutions on how to start integrating them into current and future studies. The categories below are based on the reasons behind their exclusions, and these reasons provide insight into how they can be engaged with in the near future.Missing biophysical impactsOne group of missing risks arises from the calibration of the IAMs, which are often decades out of dateThe red arrows show channels of interaction. Cascading tipping points refers to the increased probability of one tipping point because of the triggering of anothera, Hazards that most exceed the distribution from recent (1980–2009) history, measured with a z-score from nine GCMs in WorldClim76 in 2050 under SSP3-7.0, using high logged precipitation in the wettest month (labelled ‘Flood’), low logged annual precipitation (Drought), coefficient of variation of precipitation (Precipitation variation), minimum temperature of the coldest month (Chill) and maximum temperature of the warmest month (Heat). Significance is determined by bootstrapping the 95% confidence interval, and determined to be at a z-score of 0.98. b, The same as a, but showing the distribution of the z-scores across the global population.Full size imageSecond, there are normative, ethical arguments to maintain the natural state of the planet, out of a rights-based demand to not subject people to undue risks, for example70,71. The argument is that economic systems should conform to the values held by their stakeholders and that comprehensive economic evaluations should therefore account for infringements on the stated priorities of each community.Third, there are results from complexity science that provide ways to monitor the fingerprints of risks, even if we do not know their nature72. These can provide early warning signals, and suggest improving resilience even without clear dangers in sight. …

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