Market Extra: The Dow industrials are on the verge of a ‘golden cross,’ even as BlackRock predicts recession like no other

by | Dec 9, 2022 | Stock Market

Despite worries about inflation and an impending recession, there is at least one sign that some bullish market technical analysts might latch onto. An upbeat golden cross appears to be forming in the Dow Jones Industrial Average 
DJIA,
-0.90%,
 more than nine months after a bearish death cross formed back in March, as the hawkish agenda of the Federal Reserve shattered bullishness on Wall Street.

A golden cross occurs when the 50-day moving average for an asset price trades above the 200-day MA, while a death cross, comparatively, is when the 50-day falls below the long-term average. The 50-day moving average for the Dow stands at 32,200.32, at last check Friday afternoon, while the 200-day sits at 32,460.71, a roughly 260-point difference that could be traversed in the coming week or two, based on its current trajectory.

FactSet

A golden cross would mark the first for the Dow industrials since 2020 of August, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The bullish chart formation also would appear at an odd time for investors, with an apparent uptrend materializing in the stock market, even as the threat of a recession in 2023 grows. Read: Financial markets are flashing a warning that a recession is imminent: here’s what it means for stocks See: Goldman Sachs CEO says recession is likely, with 35% chance of a soft landing BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, is anticipating a unique recession unlike others that we’ve seen in U.S. history. “The new macro regime is playing out. We think that requires a new, dynamic playbook based on views of market risk appetite and pricing of macro damage,” wrote BlackRock’s Investment Institute team led by Jean Boivin. The BlackRock team said markets aren’t necessarily pricing in the recession that is being predicted.

“Central banks appear set on doing ‘whatever it takes’ to fight inflation, making recession foretold, in our view,” the team at BlackRock wrote. As MarketWatch’s Tomi Kilgore notes, crosses …

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