Wall Street often gets it wrong when it comes to anticipating where stocks might be trading one-year out. But in 2022, its forecasters were set to miss the mark by the widest margin in nearly 15 years, according to data compiled by FactSet. Wall Street equity analysts were on pace to overestimate the performance of the S&P 500 index in 2022 by nearly 40% as of Tuesday, according to the average bottom-up forecast compiled by FactSet’s senior earnings analyst John Butters. That would mark their biggest miss since 2008 when analysts overshot by 92%.
A year ago, equity analysts were penciling in the S&P 500
finishing 2022 at 5,264.51, according to FactSet data. That’s turned out to be way off base: the large-cap index was trading just north of 3,800 as of Tuesday’s close. This year, however, Wall Street’s top strategists have been more cautious, spending much of the time slashing their year-end stock-market targets as the Federal Reserve kept raising rates to fight stubbornly high inflation and causing volatility across markets, including stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities, to explode. The damage felt across financial markets has the S&P 500 down about 20%, on pace for its worst year since 2008 when it plunged nearly 40%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.S&P 500 estimates A recent survey of top Wall Street forecasters by MarketWatch put the average S&P 500 estimate at 4,031 for the end of 2023, an advance of only about 6% from Tuesday’s close of 3,821.62. To get to that average (see chart), MarketWatch collected estimates from 18 investment banks and brokers.
S&P 500 Target