I have always refrained from saying what legendary investor Sir John Templeton considered the four most dangerous words in investing: This time is different.” After months of talking to and reading the words of investment experts trying to find the right way to describe and forecast the U.S. economy and stock market for 2023, I’m not going to go out on a limb and say this time is different, but I am coming close: this time feels different.
I’ve been investing since I was a teenager. By nature, I’m an optimist. I default naturally and easily to the positive; in my life, the good always gets the benefit of the doubt. As I hear and read experts reaching back for market and economy parallels from the past, my experience over the past several decades has shown that every downturn, recession or crash ultimately proved to be a buying opportunity. As a result, believing the good in long-term forecasts has always been easy. That’s not the case right now. If you want to make me laugh these days, say something particularly optimistic about the market. Tell me the Federal Reserve will stick the landing, or that recession isn …