Market Extra: ‘Rogue Russia’ is 2023’s most dangerous threat: Eurasia Group

by | Jan 3, 2023 | Stock Market

An isolated and humiliated Russia is the biggest danger of 2023, political-risk consulting firm Eurasia Group said Tuesday, unveiling its annual list of top geopolitical risks. “A humiliated Russia will turn from global player into the world’s most dangerous rogue state, posing a serious security threat to Europe, the United States, and beyond,” wrote Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group’s president and founder, and Cliff Kupchan, the firm’s chairman, in the report.

Bluster aside, the Kremlin last year was careful to keep its war on Ukraine contained within the country, avoiding direct confrontation with NATO. In 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin “can’t afford to be that cautious,” they wrote. After promising a quick victory after its February invasion, Russia has no good military options to win the war, Eurasia Group observed. Russia also has little leverage left over either the United States or Europe. While it will cut off most remaining gas flows to Europe, increasing European public support for negotiations, this won’t prompt a rollback of sanctions, they wrote, or undercut military support for Ukraine. “Defeated on the battlefield in Ukraine, increasingly staggered by sanctions, left without leverage over the EU or the United States, with little to los …

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