Some economists see a ‘rolling recession’ ahead. Here’s what that means – CNBC

by | Jan 25, 2023 | Financial

All the economists who think the U.S. is heading for recession could be wrong: What might happen instead, according to one school of thought, is multiple recessions reverberating over the year ahead. Termed “rolling recessions,” the idea is that rather than contract broadly and all at once, the economy could see different sectors decline in succession, one after the other. While headline GDP might not indicate negative quarters, portions of the economy, such as housing, manufacturing and corporate profits, will act and feel like they are in recession. It’s something quite unlike the U.S. has seen before, but these are unusual times. “We may not see an outright recession, with everything declining simultaneously as we had in the past,” said Sung Won Sohn, professor of finance and economics at Loyola Marymount University and chief economist at SS Economics. “It will take some sort of catastrophe at home or abroad to have a simultaneous recession. I think we will see rolling recession in the future.” Uncertainty about what shape the economy will take comes with market participants awaiting the next official reading on growth. The Commerce Department on Thursday is scheduled to release its advance estimate for fourth-quarter GDP growth, with economists surveyed by Dow Jones expecting an annualized gain of 2.8%. That will bring to a close a volatile year in whi …

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