Outside the Box: Expect Russia’s war in Ukraine to continue into 2024, with higher prices for oil, gas and defense stocks

by | Feb 26, 2023 | Stock Market

The one-year anniversary of Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine is certainly a shock to all participants, most especially Vladimir Putin. It was clear from the start that the Russian president never thought long-term Ukrainian resistance was possible and his internal debate was most likely whether he would be greeted immediately with caviar and champagne or would need a few months to mop up the areas of resistance. Had Putin expected Ukraine to fight, he would have gone in much harder and bombed infrastructure before deploying the army. Instead, he led with the infantry, who became the much publicized “bullet-stoppers” over the following months.

We all know from news reports that this is a brutal war. So, as we enter the second year of the conflict, these eight aspects of the war have implications for global economies and financial markets: 1. A Korea-like frozen border: Both sides are clinging to an absolutist position: “I win, you lose.” There is no possible negotiated solution with this mindset.  Long term, we expect a Korea-like frozen border to be a likely outcome. Russia keeps the Russian-leaning part of the Donbas, and the remaining part of Ukraine is allowed to join N …

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