Bond Report: Treasury yields mixed as traders eye debt-ceiling talks and Fed minutes

by | May 24, 2023 | Stock Market

Treasury yields were little changed Wednesday morning ahead of the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s May 2-3 meeting.What’s happening
The yield on the 2-year Treasury
was 4.304%, down from 4.333% on Tuesday.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury
was little changed at 3.697% versus 3.696% on Tuesday.

The yield on the 30-year Treasury
was 3.95% versus 3.951% as of Tuesday.

What’s driving markets Treasury yields were mixed Wednesday morning ahead of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s May meeting, due at 2 p.m. Eastern time. There is no major economic data scheduled to be released. Meanwhile, yields on 1-month through 1-year Treasury bills were all above 5% and either at or near multiyear highs as concerns about the debt-ceiling deadline continued to pressure the market for government debt.

The rate on the 1-month Treasury bill, which has been one of the maturities trading as a proxy for debt-ceiling angst, was 5.678% as of 9:50 a.m., according to Tradeweb — as investors continued to flee short-term government paper. It was not far from from its May 12 closing level of 5.68%, which was the highest level since at least June 2010. Signs of stress were evident elsewhere, too: Tuesday’s 21-day T-bill auction drew a 6.2% yield, indicating investors remained uneasy about the lack of progress on the debt ceiling in Washington. Markets priced in a 66% probability that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at between 5%-5.25% on June 14, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Traders also see a 33% chance of another quarter-of-a-percentage-point rate hike that would take the Fed’s main interest rate target to between 5.25%-5.5%. U.K. government b …

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