In One Chart: Why stock-market bulls must beware of ‘bogus bear-market bottoms’

by | May 15, 2023 | Stock Market

Bear markets have to end some time. But investors would do well to remember that many seeming bear-market exits prove to be a false dawn. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, noted media hoopla over the Nasdaq-100’s
entry into a new bull market on March 29, after closing more than 20% above its bear-market low set on Dec. 28 — a pullback that saw the tech-concentrated index drop 35.6% from peak to trough.

The problem, he observed in a Monday note, is that “both the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500
have a history of setting bogus bear market bottoms and prematurely indicating the start of subsequent new bull markets, as defined by a 20% advance off of the prior bear market low.” (See tables below.)


Under the criteria used by Dow Jones …

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