The U.S. dollar has completed its first “golden cross” since July 2021, which could mean the greenback is going higher, creating more problems for stocks. Heading into Friday’s settlement, the 50-day average on the ICE U.S. Dollar Index
a gauge of the buck’s value against a basket of its biggest rivals that’s heavily weighted toward the euro, stands at 103.15, higher than the 200-day moving average, which was 103.11.
The index itself finished at 105.56 on Friday, trading at its highest level since March 10, 2023, the day that the Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, sparking a brief rally in safety plays like the dollar. It climbed 0.2% this week, booking its 10th straight weekly advance, its longest such streak since a 12-week sprint that ended in October 2014.
A golden cross occurs when the 50-day moving average closes above the 200-day moving average. It’s a popular signal among technical analysts and often — though definitely not always — signals that momentum is building in a given direction. On the other hand, a “death cross” occurs when the 50-day moving average breaks below the 200-day. A “death cross” in the U.S. dollar occurred on Jan. 10. Afterward, the buck trended lower for the next six months, ultimately hitting its lowest level of 2023 on July 14. Since then, the buck has been in a sustained uptrend that some currency strategists think has grounds to continue, now that the Federal Reserve bolstered its forecast to keep interest rates above 5% through 2024. According to an analysis by Dow J …