Stocks to bet on China’s economic future after the real estate pain ends

by | Oct 8, 2023 | Financial

China is not heading toward Japan-style stagnation because the government is behind the latest property slump, Yao Yang, dean of an economics department at a top Chinese university, told reporters in late September. Not only does that imply recent sluggishness is temporary, but China’s high savings rate, artificial intelligence applications and renewable energy prowess signal the country’s longer-term potential, he said. “I think we should compare China to Japan in the 1970s, because after the Tokyo Olympics in 1964, Japan entered a period of fast economic growth … which lasted for 30 years,” Yao said in Mandarin, translated by CNBC. He heads the National School of Development at Peking University As bold as the claim sounds, Bernstein took a similar view in a Sept. 29 note titled “The Long-View: ‘Japanification’ of China? — Not really.” Despite similarities to Japan in the 1990s — such as an aging population and poor consumer confidence — China today bears many differences, wrote Rupal Agarwal, director and Asia quant strategist at Bernstein. For example, China’s urbanization rate in 2022 was 64%, the same as Japan’s back in the 1960s, she said, noting Japan’s urbanization rate in the 1990s was a much higher 77%. Chin …

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