Sir John Curtice: The dramatic Tory decline behind Labour’s landslide

by | Jul 5, 2024 | Politics

2 hours agoBy Sir John Curtice, BBC polling expertBBCLabour have won the 2024 general election with a landslide and are expected to end the night with a majority of 170. However, their victory is largely on the back of a dramatic 20 point decline in Conservative support.This is likely to be the worst Conservative result in terms of seats in history, with the party winning as few as 129. It is also likely to be the highest Lib Dem tally since 1923, with the party winning 69 seats. However Labour’s likely tally is, at 410, a little less than the 419 seats that they won in 1997.Labour’s vote share is expected to be up by just under two points across the country. This is entirely as a result of a 19 point increase in support in Scotland. In Wales, the party’s vote has actually fallen back by four points, while in England the party’s vote is largely unchanged from 2019.It is possible that Labour will secure its landslide on a lower share of the vote (35% in Great Britain) than any of Tony Blair’s victories, including the 36% the party won in 2005. That itself was hitherto the lowest share of the vote won by a majority single party government. In many ways, this looks more like an election the Conservatives have lost than one Labour have won.Conservative support fell most heavily in seats they were trying to defend. This is primarily the result of a large increase in Reform’s support, especially in places where there was a high Leave vote in 2016.Meanwhile, the Conservatives’ difficulties have been compounded by the fact that Labour’s vote has increased by six points in seats where the party started second to the Conservatives, far better than elsewhere (outside of Scotland).The Lib Dems have increased their vote by nine points where they started second to the Conservatives, when across the country their vote has flatlined.The advances that the Conservatives secured in Leave-voting areas after the EU referendum, most notably in 2019, have been entirely lost. Compared with 2019, support for the Conservatives is down by 12 points in seats where less than 45% voted Leave. In contrast, support for the party is down by 27 points in seats where more than 65% voted Leave.Reform themselves have, however, found it difficult to convert votes into seats and the party is currently expected to win no more than four seats, including Nigel Farage in Clacton.The SNP have suffered a serious drubbing. Their share of the vote is down 15 points, while Labour’s is up by 19 in Scotland. It now looks as though the SNP will win no more than nine seats by the end of the count.The Greens have recorded their best general election performance yet, and will likely win 7% of the vote and four seats, up from one in the last election.Notably, turnout is well down compared to recent elections. At the moment, it looks as though it could fall to 60%. This will be the second lowest turnout ever in a UK election since 1885. Only the 59% in 2001 was lower.Labour have lost five races in seats with large Muslim populations – four to independents and one to the Conservatives. The party’s vote is down on average by 11 points in seats where more than 10% of the population identify as Muslim. In one remarkable individual performance, Jeremy Corbyn retained his Islington North seat as an independent.No less than five independents have been elected in total, the highest proportion since the 1950 election. …

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[mwai_chat context=”Let’s have a discussion about this article:nn2 hours agoBy Sir John Curtice, BBC polling expertBBCLabour have won the 2024 general election with a landslide and are expected to end the night with a majority of 170. However, their victory is largely on the back of a dramatic 20 point decline in Conservative support.This is likely to be the worst Conservative result in terms of seats in history, with the party winning as few as 129. It is also likely to be the highest Lib Dem tally since 1923, with the party winning 69 seats. However Labour’s likely tally is, at 410, a little less than the 419 seats that they won in 1997.Labour’s vote share is expected to be up by just under two points across the country. This is entirely as a result of a 19 point increase in support in Scotland. In Wales, the party’s vote has actually fallen back by four points, while in England the party’s vote is largely unchanged from 2019.It is possible that Labour will secure its landslide on a lower share of the vote (35% in Great Britain) than any of Tony Blair’s victories, including the 36% the party won in 2005. That itself was hitherto the lowest share of the vote won by a majority single party government. In many ways, this looks more like an election the Conservatives have lost than one Labour have won.Conservative support fell most heavily in seats they were trying to defend. This is primarily the result of a large increase in Reform’s support, especially in places where there was a high Leave vote in 2016.Meanwhile, the Conservatives’ difficulties have been compounded by the fact that Labour’s vote has increased by six points in seats where the party started second to the Conservatives, far better than elsewhere (outside of Scotland).The Lib Dems have increased their vote by nine points where they started second to the Conservatives, when across the country their vote has flatlined.The advances that the Conservatives secured in Leave-voting areas after the EU referendum, most notably in 2019, have been entirely lost. Compared with 2019, support for the Conservatives is down by 12 points in seats where less than 45% voted Leave. In contrast, support for the party is down by 27 points in seats where more than 65% voted Leave.Reform themselves have, however, found it difficult to convert votes into seats and the party is currently expected to win no more than four seats, including Nigel Farage in Clacton.The SNP have suffered a serious drubbing. Their share of the vote is down 15 points, while Labour’s is up by 19 in Scotland. It now looks as though the SNP will win no more than nine seats by the end of the count.The Greens have recorded their best general election performance yet, and will likely win 7% of the vote and four seats, up from one in the last election.Notably, turnout is well down compared to recent elections. At the moment, it looks as though it could fall to 60%. This will be the second lowest turnout ever in a UK election since 1885. Only the 59% in 2001 was lower.Labour have lost five races in seats with large Muslim populations – four to independents and one to the Conservatives. The party’s vote is down on average by 11 points in seats where more than 10% of the population identify as Muslim. In one remarkable individual performance, Jeremy Corbyn retained his Islington North seat as an independent.No less than five independents have been elected in total, the highest proportion since the 1950 election. …nnDiscussion:nn” ai_name=”RocketNews AI: ” start_sentence=”Can I tell you more about this article?” text_input_placeholder=”Type ‘Yes'”]
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