Beirut, Lebanon – The killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Friday has capped a series of blows to the Lebanese Shia movement over recent weeks.Israel has killed a large number of senior leaders and commanders, as well as middle and lower-ranking members. It has also heavily infiltrated Hezbollah’s communications network, as revealed in the pager and walkie-talkie attacks in mid-September.
These major blows – both to the group’s morale and capabilities – raise serious questions about whether Hezbollah will be able to maintain its powerful role in Lebanese domestic politics and resist a possible Israeli invasion, analysts told Al Jazeera.
“Hezbollah is very vulnerable. As an organisation that has been decimated, it is difficult to see them spring back to normal anytime soon,” said Mohanad Hage Ali, an expert on Lebanon and a senior fellow with the Carnegie Middle East Center.
A power vacuum?
Since the end of Lebanon’s 15-year civil war in 1990, Hezbollah has consolidated firm control over Shia politics in the country by championing identity, religion and resistance as an elixir to guard against Israel and the US’s role in the region.
The group’s philosophy strongly resonated with Shia communities, who were jubilant when Hezbollah liberated south Lebanon from 18 years of Israeli occupation in 2000.
As Hezbollah accumulated more power, wealth and weapons, it gradually became the dominant force in Lebanese politics, making it a polarising player in the country. Accusations of involvement in the killing of its rivals dogged Hezbollah, including the …
