Key Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia made a surprise deal with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer on a $739 billion healthcare, climate and tax package, but will it actually become law? A number of analysts are predicting that the legislation, dubbed the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, is likely to get enacted.
“Anything that Senator Manchin supports should be able to pass the Senate on a party-line vote, but there are three hurdles that must be cleared before a reconciliation package can be cleared,” said Isaac Boltansky, managing director and director of policy research at BTIG, in a Thursday note. And any reconciliation package that passes the Senate should be able to get the House’s OK, he added. Related: A guide to budget reconciliation, which Democrats could use to push Biden’s agenda Boltansky said the three hurdles in the Senate have to do with the package’s provision that would address the so-called “carried interest loophole,” its omission of what’s been called “SALT relief,” and the fact that passage could be stalled by cases of COVID-19 among Democratic senators that might prevent them from voting. Every Democratic senator’s vote is crucial as the Senate is split 50-50, and the party is only in control of the chamber because Vice President Kamala Harris can cast tiebreaking votes. The carried interest loophole allows pr …