The Tell: S&P 500 books second lowest close of the year. And it still can get scarier for stocks.

by | Oct 11, 2022 | Stock Market

Scarier days lie ahead for the stock market, according to Mizuho Securities. While the S&P 500
has fallen about 25% from its peak this year, there’s “more pain to come” for equity-market bulls embarking on a “misguided ‘buy the dip’ strategy,” Mizuho’s team of U.S. economists warned in a Tuesday client note.

Such thinking “ignores the essential difference underlying the post-Covid macro environment and that which existed between 1990 and March 2020 when the Trump administration initiated the lockdown to curb the spread of the virus,” argued Steven Ricchiuto, chief U.S. economist at Mizuho, and economist Alex Pelle. But with inflation running near a 40-year high, the Federal Reserve will keep “chasing the terminal rate that causes the labor market to crack.” That means long-term rates will be “dragged higher” to achieve a sustained pullback in U.S. living costs, but also resulting in increased risk to earnings and real growth, they said. The 10-year Treasury rate
hit 3.938% on Tuesday, its second highest level of 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The benchmark is used for pricing everything from consumer loans to corporate debt. See: Fed’s Mester says there’s been no progress on inflation, so interest rates need to move higher The S&P 500 closed at 3,588.84 on Tuesday, booking its second lowest finish of the year, according to Dow Jones Market Data. It peaked at 4,796.56 in January. Market Snapshot: Nasdaq ends at 2-year low as U.S. stocks extend losing streak to 5 days Instead of “expecting the Fed to come to the rescue after each step lower” for stocks, Mizuho’s team sees another fall of 10% or 11% for the S&P to 3,200 “before valuations become supportive.” With third-quarter earnings picking up later this week …

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