COVID-19 cases are projected to increase by 80 percent over the next two weeks, though it’s still unclear whether hospitalizations and deaths may follow suit in December, according to national disease modeling. Three forecasts to know:
Cases: Daily COVID-19 cases are projected to increase 80.3 percent in the next two weeks, according to modeling from Rochester Minn.-based Mayo Clinic.
Forecasts suggest daily average cases will jump from 41,685.3 cases on Nov. 23 to 75,166 by Dec. 7. The nation’s case rate is also expected to increase from 14.7 cases per 100,000 population to 22.9 over the same period.
Hospitalizations: Daily COVID-19 hospital admissions are projected to remain stable or have an uncertain trend over the next four weeks, with 1,100 to 9,600 new daily admissions likely reported on Dec. 16, according to the CDC’s ensemble forecast from 15 modeling groups.
The nation’s seven-day average of new hospital admissions was 3,193 as of Nov. 25, down slightly from 3,426 the previous week, CDC data shows.
Deaths: COVID-19 deaths are also projected to remain stable or have an uncertain trend over the next month, according to the CDC’s ensemble forecast from 14 modeling groups. The forecast projects 1,000 to 3,800 deaths likely reported in the week ending Dec. 17, which translates to a daily total of 142.9 to 542.9.
The nation’s current seven-day daily death average was 330 as of Nov. 27, up 4 percent in the last two weeks, according to data tracked by The New York Times.
The CDC said its ensemble forecasts are among the most reliable for COVID-19 modeling, but they cannot predict rapid changes in hospitalizations or deaths. Therefore, they should not be relied on “for mak …
