What if stocks and bonds don’t come back next year, or even the year after next? What if the Federal Reserve can’t keep raising interest rates? What if it can’t bring down inflation? What if we end up in some sort of rerun of the 1970s, with a lethal combination of inflation and slow growth: stagflation? Most important: What would that mean for your retirement portfolio — and for your retirement plans?
Can you deal with a “lost” decade of meager returns, or none at all? Will you still be on track for retirement if your investments don’t make a nickel until 2035 (even before taxes and fees)? I am not predicting this will happen. (Like Casey Stengel, I try not to make predictions, especially about the future.) And maybe this outcome is unlikely — although & some very reasonable and well-informed people disagree. But: what if? Back in the 1970s and early 1980s, the so-called’ balanced’ or ’60/40″ portfolio, meaning 60% stocks and 40% in Treasury bonds, was a bust. It actually lost money, in real terms, for nearly a decade. From the end of 1972 to the end of 1981, over a period of 9 years, someone in a 60/40 fund ac …