There’s an old saw about how if you lay all the world’s economists end to end, they still won’t point in any one direction or reach a conclusion. There’s no such adage about market technicians, but in the past six weeks it appears that the diehard group of technical analysts have all reached the same eventuality, one involving mostly good times ahead.
Technicians are so happy that it highlights the big schism between the market’s fundamentals and the technical indicators. Fundamentals tend to look out longer term, while technical benchmarks tell a story lasting typically no more than six months, so it’s possible for both to be correct at the same time. But after the U.S. market’s dismal performance in 2022, it is the sudden giddiness of the technicians that is the surprise. Throughout the down year, any upswing or turn was viewed as a “bear-market rally.” No positive day seemed to be strong enough to provide confirmation that a new trend was in place; technicians were quick to find the black cloud in every silver lining. Now, every indicator seems to be flashing green. Nigam Arora, editor of The Arora Report, said this week in an interview on my podcast, Money …