U.S. stocks capped off a wild 2023 with a two-month sprint that has carried the Dow to record highs and the S&P 500 index to within a whisker of a similar milestone. But after such a powerful advance, some portfolio managers and strategists are concerned that the market could suffer its own post-New Year’s Eve hangover once the calendar turns to January 2024.
Instead of providing a tailwind for the market, several who spoke with MarketWatch worried that the “January effect” might work in reverse as investors scramble to lock in gains after the S&P 500 rose 24% in 2023, according to FactSet data.
“Any time you have a big burst like that, I think you’re vulnerable to some profit-taking,” said James St. Aubin, chief investment strategist at Sierra Investment Management, during an interview with MarketWatch. “It wouldn’t surprise anybody to see the market cool off a bit after a strong run.” From high valuations, to bullish sentiment indicators, to economic data, to geopolitics and beyond, here are a few things that could trip up the market in January. U.S. stocks are already overbought A technical gauge that’s widely followed by Wall Street portfolio managers and technical analysts has been screaming that U.S. stocks are overbought for a month. The 14-day relative strength index on the S&P 500, a momentum indicator that’s supposed to help put the magnitude of the index’s latest moves into context, climbed as high as 82.4 on Dec. 19, its highest since 2020, according to FactSet data.
FACTSET
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Instead of providing a tailwind for the market, several who spoke with MarketWatch worried that the “January effect” might work in reverse as investors scramble to lock in gains after the S&P 500 rose 24% in 2023, according to FactSet data.
“Any time you have a big burst like that, I think you’re vulnerable to some profit-taking,” said James St. Aubin, chief investment strategist at Sierra Investment Management, during an interview with MarketWatch. “It wouldn’t surprise anybody to see the market cool off a bit after a strong run.” From high valuations, to bullish sentiment indicators, to economic data, to geopolitics and beyond, here are a few things that could trip up the market in January. U.S. stocks are already overbought A technical gauge that’s widely followed by Wall Street portfolio managers and technical analysts has been screaming that U.S. stocks are overbought for a month. The 14-day relative strength index on the S&P 500, a momentum indicator that’s supposed to help put the magnitude of the index’s latest moves into context, climbed as high as 82.4 on Dec. 19, its highest since 2020, according to FactSet data.
FACTSET
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