Republican state Sen. Matt Dolan is tied for first in Ohio’s GOP Senate primary, even without Donald Trump’s endorsement.(Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)BLUE ASH, Ohio — Not even Matt Dolan seems entirely sure what’s behind his late surge in the GOP Senate primary to determine who’ll face endangered Ohio Democrat Sherrod Brown in November.“You build a campaign to win, and a lot of that is behind the scenes and it starts percolating, and you peak at the right time,” said Dolan, a 59-year-old state senator and multimillionaire lawyer whom polls have deadlocked with or slightly ahead of the Donald Trump-backed candidate in the race, Bernie Moreno.Advertisement
That Dolan even seems to be within striking distance of the nomination in a red state, as the kind of Republican who says he likes the former president’s policies but not his personality, feels like a violation of GOP physics. And yet it’s the dynamic that’s defining this race in its final days, with implications for Trump’s ability to elevate his preferred candidates and win a Senate majority as he pursues yet another presidential bid.“There’s some tarnish on that shine,” said Scott Milburn, a longtime Ohio GOP consultant who’s supporting Dolan, of the diminishing returns on Trump’s endorsements since the 2022 midterms. “Trump is still the gorilla in the room — but he’s probably not the 800-pound gorilla. He’s more like the 650-pound gorilla.”That’s just one theory behind Dolan’s power in the polls — something akin to the Nikki Haley effect, which showed that up to 40% of the GOP primary electorate was open to turning the page on Trump and his “Make America Great Again,” or MAGA, movement. There’s no clear consensus on what’s driving Dolan, whether it’s more about Moreno’s weaknesses or Dolan’s strengths, or the plurality of voters who still haven’t made up their minds in what’s set to be a low-turnout election, with Trump already the presumptive GOP presidential nominee.A Republican strategist who’s worked on Ohio Senate campaigns predicted that, like Haley, voters would ultimately reject Dolan as out of step with the party. “That’s not not where Republican primary voters are,” said the strategist, who asked not to be identified. “That’s why Bernie Moreno is likely going to win.”Advertisement
Moreno, a 57-year-old who previously worked as a luxury car dealer and has never held elected office, benefited from an early Trump bump after receiving his endorsement in December. But Moreno’s inability to clear the field has the MAGA machine — including Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem and even Trump himself — scrambling to drag Moreno over the finish line in Tuesday’s election.It’s a dynamic that few expected to see in this race, which features Moreno as Trump’s guy, Dolan as the establishment conservative and Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose somewhere in the middle. The primary has essentially narrowed into a two-person contest in part because both Moreno and Dolan, a part-owner of the Cleveland Guardians, have each loaned their campaigns millions to saturate the airwaves and get ahead of LaRose, who entered the primary with the most name recognition as the only …
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That Dolan even seems to be within striking distance of the nomination in a red state, as the kind of Republican who says he likes the former president’s policies but not his personality, feels like a violation of GOP physics. And yet it’s the dynamic that’s defining this race in its final days, with implications for Trump’s ability to elevate his preferred candidates and win a Senate majority as he pursues yet another presidential bid.“There’s some tarnish on that shine,” said Scott Milburn, a longtime Ohio GOP consultant who’s supporting Dolan, of the diminishing returns on Trump’s endorsements since the 2022 midterms. “Trump is still the gorilla in the room — but he’s probably not the 800-pound gorilla. He’s more like the 650-pound gorilla.”That’s just one theory behind Dolan’s power in the polls — something akin to the Nikki Haley effect, which showed that up to 40% of the GOP primary electorate was open to turning the page on Trump and his “Make America Great Again,” or MAGA, movement. There’s no clear consensus on what’s driving Dolan, whether it’s more about Moreno’s weaknesses or Dolan’s strengths, or the plurality of voters who still haven’t made up their minds in what’s set to be a low-turnout election, with Trump already the presumptive GOP presidential nominee.A Republican strategist who’s worked on Ohio Senate campaigns predicted that, like Haley, voters would ultimately reject Dolan as out of step with the party. “That’s not not where Republican primary voters are,” said the strategist, who asked not to be identified. “That’s why Bernie Moreno is likely going to win.”Advertisement
Moreno, a 57-year-old who previously worked as a luxury car dealer and has never held elected office, benefited from an early Trump bump after receiving his endorsement in December. But Moreno’s inability to clear the field has the MAGA machine — including Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem and even Trump himself — scrambling to drag Moreno over the finish line in Tuesday’s election.It’s a dynamic that few expected to see in this race, which features Moreno as Trump’s guy, Dolan as the establishment conservative and Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose somewhere in the middle. The primary has essentially narrowed into a two-person contest in part because both Moreno and Dolan, a part-owner of the Cleveland Guardians, have each loaned their campaigns millions to saturate the airwaves and get ahead of LaRose, who entered the primary with the most name recognition as the only …nnDiscussion:nn” ai_name=”RocketNews AI: ” start_sentence=”Can I tell you more about this article?” text_input_placeholder=”Type ‘Yes'”]