Man, what a run it’s been. The S & P 500 is closing out the first quarter on an epic win streak: The index is up 10% year to date and an amazing 25% in the past five months. A run of 25% in any five-month period is a very rare event. Since 1950, there have only been seven other periods that have done better: S & P 500’s epic monthly win streaks Through March 2024 up 24.6% (current five-month streak) Aug. 31, 2020 up 35.4% (five-month streak) Aug. 31, 2009 up 27.9% (six-month streak) Jan. 31, 1999 up 33.6% (five-month streak) March 31, 1986 up 25.8% (six-month streak) Dec. 31, 1982 up 31.3% (six-month streak) May 31, 1975 up 32.9% (six-month streak) Feb. 28, 1975 up 28.4% (five-month streak) An imminent pullback? Maybe, but momentum is very powerful Naturally, with a run like this, everyone is now in the pullback prediction business. “This can’t continue,” is the refrain everywhere. “We’re going to pull back 10%. We have to, right?” Not necessarily. Momentum has been very strong. Noting that the S & P 500 is currently trading roughly 12% above its 200-day moving average (indicating very strong momentum), Todd Sohn from Strategas notes that, “While mean reversion is a threat, forward six-month returns tend to skew above historical averages.” His poin …
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[mwai_chat context=”Let’s have a discussion about this article:nnMan, what a run it’s been. The S & P 500 is closing out the first quarter on an epic win streak: The index is up 10% year to date and an amazing 25% in the past five months. A run of 25% in any five-month period is a very rare event. Since 1950, there have only been seven other periods that have done better: S & P 500’s epic monthly win streaks Through March 2024 up 24.6% (current five-month streak) Aug. 31, 2020 up 35.4% (five-month streak) Aug. 31, 2009 up 27.9% (six-month streak) Jan. 31, 1999 up 33.6% (five-month streak) March 31, 1986 up 25.8% (six-month streak) Dec. 31, 1982 up 31.3% (six-month streak) May 31, 1975 up 32.9% (six-month streak) Feb. 28, 1975 up 28.4% (five-month streak) An imminent pullback? Maybe, but momentum is very powerful Naturally, with a run like this, everyone is now in the pullback prediction business. “This can’t continue,” is the refrain everywhere. “We’re going to pull back 10%. We have to, right?” Not necessarily. Momentum has been very strong. Noting that the S & P 500 is currently trading roughly 12% above its 200-day moving average (indicating very strong momentum), Todd Sohn from Strategas notes that, “While mean reversion is a threat, forward six-month returns tend to skew above historical averages.” His poin …nnDiscussion:nn” ai_name=”RocketNews AI: ” start_sentence=”Can I tell you more about this article?” text_input_placeholder=”Type ‘Yes'”]
